Iceland goes to the polls on Sunday to decide whether to resume talks on European Union membership. A yes vote would make it the eleventh country hoping to join the bloc. At present, ten states have applied: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, all but Kosovo recognised as official candidates.
Iceland first applied in 2009, after the collapse of its financial sector, but talks were terminated in 2015, though the application was never formally withdrawn. A shifting geopolitical and security landscape has reopened the question for the Nordic island of almost 390,000 people. Opinion remains split: a July poll put support for yes at 53 percent and no at 47.
Joining the EU requires aligning with the bloc’s values, democratic principles and rule of law, usually through reforms across 33 negotiation chapters. When Iceland’s talks were paused, 27 chapters had been opened and 11 concluded. Among current candidates, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia are furthest along and could join by the end of the decade, though concerns persist over Serbia’s rule of law. Talks with Turkey remain frozen, while Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia applied after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Enlargement also raises institutional questions, particularly around voting rights and unanimous decision-making. “More EU members will make the decision-making process more cumbersome, in particular countries quite different in political and geographical standing, and with different interests,” said Tobias Etzold, senior adviser at the European Policy Centre in Brussels. In 2023, Germany and France floated a tiered model, with a category of associated members that could include EEA states such as Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein.
Iceland’s position differs from other candidates because it already belongs to the European Economic Area and the Schengen Area. A yes vote would resume talks rather than restart an application, Etzold noted, though the timeline and eventual outcome remain uncertain. As in Norway, there is reluctance to cede sovereignty, especially over fisheries. The government has promised a further referendum on membership once any accession talks conclude.
