Europe could be 12 to 15 per cent short of the gas it needs if a severe cold spell hits this winter, according to a report from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG). The network, which represents the continent’s gas grid operators, published the assessment on 8 October as governments prepare for the cold months.
The report models two scenarios, both assuming that no Russian pipeline gas reaches the bloc. The EU has largely phased out Russian supplies, although landlocked Hungary and Slovakia still have exemptions. Storage stood at 72 per cent on 1 October, compared with 83 per cent a year earlier, and the report describes this year’s injection season as challenging.
ENTSOG identifies several risks. A disruption to the largest offshore gas infrastructure serving continental Europe, combined with a full stop to Algerian pipeline imports, would seriously threaten supply. Even in a normal winter, tight LNG markets could drain storage to 13 per cent by March 2027 and force energy-intensive industries to cut output. The EU now relies more heavily on global LNG, with the US its largest supplier, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely restricted since war broke out with Iran on 28 February, sharply reducing exports from Qatar and the UAE.
The burden would not fall evenly. Western Europe has coastal LNG terminals and pipeline links to Norway, leaving it better placed. Landlocked countries in central, eastern and south-eastern Europe are more exposed. If a major pipeline such as the North Sea’s Europipe 2 or an Algerian import line failed during a harsh winter, bottlenecks would limit the flow of gas from west to east, and south-eastern Europe could face local shortfalls of up to 12 per cent on peak days. As reserves fall, governments may come under pressure to protect their own consumers before helping neighbours.
Brussels has urged member states to keep storage as full as possible going into winter and to share any demand cuts fairly. It has also allowed countries to aim for 75 to 80 per cent storage by 1 November rather than the usual 90 per cent, to discourage panic buying. The Dutch TTF benchmark traded between €79.80 and €80.22 per megawatt hour on 8 October, nearly three times its level before the Iran war.
